Audrain County, Missouri Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MO
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 51th
Audrain County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 51.4, 51th national percentile), driven primarily by heat wave and earthquake exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $13M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Audrain County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 51.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 51st national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 10.58 events per year; earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $584K in expected annual loss and about 7.28 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $13M in expected annual loss for a population of 25K.
Beyond physical exposure, Audrain County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Higher vulnerability is partly offset by strong community resilience and recovery capacity.
The federal record bears this out: Audrain County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1974, including 8 for severe storm events and 4 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (severe storm), declared in September 2021.
Among 115 Missouri counties, Audrain County ranks #61 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Heat Wave | Medium | 10.58 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Drought | Medium | 7.28 / yr | $584K |
| Hail | Low | 4.10 / yr | $376K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 9.84 / yr | $85K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 2.68 / yr | $1M |
| Lightning | Medium | 49.39 / yr | $252K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 3.89 / yr | $522K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.35 / yr | $1M |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.32 / yr | $6M |
| Ice Storm | Low | 1.04 / yr | $69K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.12 / yr | $607 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $23K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $6K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Audrain County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1974, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in September 2021. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (8), Severe Ice Storm (4), Flood (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| September 2021 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| January 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| August 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| March 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| February 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2009 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| November 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, and a Tornado |
| June 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 19 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Audrain County?
Audrain County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 51.4 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 51th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Audrain County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Heat Wave (Medium, $2M EAL), Earthquake (Low, $1M EAL), Drought (Medium, $584K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Audrain County compare to other Missouri counties?
Audrain County ranks #61 of 115 Missouri counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Audrain County had?
FEMA records 19 federal disaster declarations for Audrain County since 1974, most often 8 for severe storm events and 4 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in September 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Audrain County's $13M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.