Marion County, Missouri Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MO
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 48th
Marion County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 47.9, 48th national percentile), driven primarily by heat wave and landslide exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $17M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Marion County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 47.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 48th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 8.89 events per year; landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $14K in expected annual loss and about 0.23 events per year; and strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 3.89 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $17M in expected annual loss for a population of 29K.
Beyond physical exposure, Marion County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Marion County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 14 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 115 Missouri counties, Marion County ranks #64 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Heat Wave | Medium | 8.89 / yr | $2M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.23 / yr | $14K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 3.89 / yr | $1M |
| Hail | Low | 3.44 / yr | $548K |
| Drought | Low | 6.37 / yr | $345K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.25 / yr | $10M |
| Cold Wave | Low | 4.21 / yr | $2M |
| Lightning | Low | 47.81 / yr | $315K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $321K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.25 / yr | $1M |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.90 / yr | $53K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $16K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 10.21 / yr | $30K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $5K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Marion County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (14), Flood (3), Severe Ice Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| January 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| August 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| July 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| March 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| February 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| August 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
| June 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Marion County?
Marion County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 47.9 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 48th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Marion County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Heat Wave (Medium, $2M EAL), Landslide (Low, $14K EAL), Strong Wind (Medium, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Marion County compare to other Missouri counties?
Marion County ranks #64 of 115 Missouri counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Marion County had?
FEMA records 24 federal disaster declarations for Marion County since 1965, most often 14 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Marion County's $17M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.