Madison County, Missouri Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MO
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 51th
Madison County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 50.9, 51th national percentile), driven primarily by heat wave and earthquake exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $15M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Madison County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 50.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 51st national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 10.84 events per year; earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; and cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 1.26 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $15M in expected annual loss for a population of 13K.
Beyond physical exposure, Madison County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Madison County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 16 for severe storm events and 3 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (severe storm), declared in May 2025.
Among 115 Missouri counties, Madison County ranks #62 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Heat Wave | Medium | 10.84 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.01 / yr | $2M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 1.26 / yr | $3M |
| Landslide | Low | 1.60 / yr | $4K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 8.26 / yr | $80K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 3.56 / yr | $584K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.82 / yr | $7M |
| Tornado | Low | 0.36 / yr | $1M |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.94 / yr | $39K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $17K |
| Lightning | Low | 56.28 / yr | $113K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $13K |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.76 / yr | $106K |
| Drought | Very Low | 3.55 / yr | $1K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Madison County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in May 2025. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (16), Severe Ice Storm (3), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Wildfires |
| July 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| September 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| January 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2017 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| January 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| May 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 25 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Madison County?
Madison County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 50.9 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 51th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Madison County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Heat Wave (Medium, $2M EAL), Earthquake (Low, $2M EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $3M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Madison County compare to other Missouri counties?
Madison County ranks #62 of 115 Missouri counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Madison County had?
FEMA records 25 federal disaster declarations for Madison County since 1973, most often 16 for severe storm events and 3 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in May 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Madison County's $15M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.