Morgan County, Missouri Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MO
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 75th
Morgan County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 75.5, 75th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and heat wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $22M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Morgan County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 75.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 75th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $763K in expected annual loss and about 0.93 events per year; heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 13.16 events per year; and riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $14M in expected annual loss and about 3.32 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $22M in expected annual loss for a population of 21K.
Beyond physical exposure, Morgan County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Morgan County has received 26 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 13 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (severe storm), declared in September 2023.
Among 115 Missouri counties, Morgan County ranks #22 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | High | 0.93 / yr | $763K |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 13.16 / yr | $1M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 3.32 / yr | $14M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.54 / yr | $13K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 11.79 / yr | $125K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.32 / yr | $2M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 2.58 / yr | $2M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $130K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $426K |
| Drought | Medium | 10.31 / yr | $235K |
| Lightning | Medium | 51.99 / yr | $245K |
| Hail | Low | 5.28 / yr | $185K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 3.71 / yr | $369K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $14K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Morgan County has received 26 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in September 2023. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (13), Flood (5), Severe Ice Storm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| September 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2017 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| January 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| January 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| August 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| March 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| February 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2009 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 26 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Morgan County?
Morgan County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 75.5 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 75th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Morgan County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (High, $763K EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $1M EAL), Riverine Flood (Medium, $14M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Morgan County compare to other Missouri counties?
Morgan County ranks #22 of 115 Missouri counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Morgan County had?
FEMA records 26 federal disaster declarations for Morgan County since 1973, most often 13 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in September 2023.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Morgan County's $22M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.