Barry County, Missouri Natural Disaster Risk

FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MO

Low

Composite Risk Score

75.1

National percentile: 75th

Barry County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 75.1, 75th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and strong wind exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $30M.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025

Risk Overview

Overall natural disaster risk in Barry County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 75.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 75th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.

The county's risk is driven primarily by ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 1.61 events per year; strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 6.25 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 0.65 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $30M in expected annual loss for a population of 34K.

Beyond physical exposure, Barry County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.

The federal record bears this out: Barry County has received 29 federal disaster declarations since 1974, including 18 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (severe storm), declared in June 2025.

Among 115 Missouri counties, Barry County ranks #23 for overall natural disaster risk.

Expected Annual Loss $30M Annualized county-level EAL
Social Vulnerability Medium Population sensitivity
Community Resilience Very Low Capacity to recover
Population 34K Latest estimate

Top Hazards

High $1M/yr
High $1M/yr
Medium $5M/yr

All 18 Hazard Risks

Ice Storm High 1.61 / yr$1M
Strong Wind High 6.25 / yr$1M
Tornado Medium 0.65 / yr$5M
Heat Wave Medium 13.74 / yr$2M
Riverine Flood Medium 4.82 / yr$17M
Winter Weather Medium 10.74 / yr$158K
Lightning Medium 57.54 / yr$510K
Landslide Low 0.82 / yr$8K
Cold Wave Medium 2.00 / yr$2M
Drought Medium 9.09 / yr$515K
Earthquake Low 0.00 / yr$709K
Wildfire Low 0.00 / yr$126K
Hail Low 7.73 / yr$393K
Hurricane Very Low 0.01 / yr$46K
Avalanche Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Coastal Flood Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Tsunami Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Volcanic Activity Very Low 0.00 / yr$0

Disaster History

Barry County has received 29 federal disaster declarations since 1974, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in June 2025. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (18), Flood (5), Severe Ice Storm (3).

DeclaredTypeDisaster
June 2025Severe StormSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding
July 2024Severe StormSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding
September 2023Severe StormSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19 Pandemic
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19
July 2019Severe StormSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding
June 2017FloodSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding
January 2016FloodSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding
January 2016FloodSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding
August 2015Severe StormSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding

Showing the 10 most recent of 29 declarations.

Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall natural disaster risk for Barry County?

Barry County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 75.1 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 75th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.

What are the top natural hazards in Barry County?

The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (High, $1M EAL), Strong Wind (High, $1M EAL), Tornado (Medium, $5M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.

How does Barry County compare to other Missouri counties?

Barry County ranks #23 of 115 Missouri counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.

How many federally declared disasters has Barry County had?

FEMA records 29 federal disaster declarations for Barry County since 1974, most often 18 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in June 2025.

What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?

EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Barry County's $30M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.