Newton County, Missouri Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MO
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 78th
Newton County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 77.5, 78th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and heat wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $35M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Newton County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 77.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 78th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Very High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 1.12 events per year; heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 15.47 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $6M in expected annual loss and about 0.57 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $35M in expected annual loss for a population of 58K.
Beyond physical exposure, Newton County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Newton County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 14 for severe storm events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (severe storm), declared in June 2025.
Among 115 Missouri counties, Newton County ranks #20 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | Very High | 1.12 / yr | $2M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 15.47 / yr | $3M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.57 / yr | $6M |
| Strong Wind | High | 6.55 / yr | $1M |
| Hail | Medium | 7.85 / yr | $954K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 5.43 / yr | $18M |
| Drought | Medium | 11.88 / yr | $781K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $297K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 9.95 / yr | $156K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $738K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 2.05 / yr | $2M |
| Lightning | Medium | 56.17 / yr | $314K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.23 / yr | $1K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $27K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Newton County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in June 2025. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (14), Flood (6), Severe Ice Storm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| June 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| June 2017 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| January 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| January 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| May 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| March 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| February 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 28 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Newton County?
Newton County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 77.5 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 78th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Newton County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (Very High, $2M EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $3M EAL), Tornado (Medium, $6M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Newton County compare to other Missouri counties?
Newton County ranks #20 of 115 Missouri counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Newton County had?
FEMA records 28 federal disaster declarations for Newton County since 1973, most often 14 for severe storm events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in June 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Newton County's $35M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.