Lawrence County, Missouri Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MO
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 66th
Lawrence County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 66.2, 66th national percentile), driven primarily by strong wind and ice storm exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $22M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Lawrence County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 66.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 66th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 6.32 events per year; ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $810K in expected annual loss and about 1.16 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 13.79 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $22M in expected annual loss for a population of 38K.
Beyond physical exposure, Lawrence County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Lawrence County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 10 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (severe storm), declared in June 2025.
Among 115 Missouri counties, Lawrence County ranks #36 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Strong Wind | High | 6.32 / yr | $2M |
| Ice Storm | High | 1.16 / yr | $810K |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 13.79 / yr | $2M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.51 / yr | $4M |
| Drought | Medium | 10.89 / yr | $602K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 11.21 / yr | $138K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $742K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 3.68 / yr | $10M |
| Hail | Low | 7.76 / yr | $364K |
| Lightning | Medium | 56.78 / yr | $260K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $50K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 2.26 / yr | $878K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $25K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.17 / yr | $146 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Lawrence County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in June 2025. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (10), Flood (4), Severe Ice Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| June 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2017 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| January 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| January 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| May 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| June 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| January 2009 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 20 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Lawrence County?
Lawrence County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 66.2 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 66th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Lawrence County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Strong Wind (High, $2M EAL), Ice Storm (High, $810K EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Lawrence County compare to other Missouri counties?
Lawrence County ranks #36 of 115 Missouri counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Lawrence County had?
FEMA records 20 federal disaster declarations for Lawrence County since 1973, most often 10 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in June 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Lawrence County's $22M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.