Vernon County, Missouri Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MO
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 46th
Vernon County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 46.0, 46th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and heat wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $14M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Vernon County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 46.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 46th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 12.98 events per year; heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Low risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 16.05 events per year; and ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Medium risk — $264K in expected annual loss and about 0.72 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $14M in expected annual loss for a population of 20K.
Beyond physical exposure, Vernon County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Vernon County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1976, including 15 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding (severe storm), declared in July 2025.
Among 115 Missouri counties, Vernon County ranks #66 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | High | 12.98 / yr | $2M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 16.05 / yr | $1M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.72 / yr | $264K |
| Hail | Low | 6.70 / yr | $391K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 2.26 / yr | $1M |
| Winter Weather | Low | 10.84 / yr | $78K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $302K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.53 / yr | $1M |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 2.89 / yr | $6M |
| Strong Wind | Low | 5.09 / yr | $523K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.15 / yr | $930 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $15K |
| Lightning | Low | 54.57 / yr | $107K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $10K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Vernon County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1976, most recently Severe Storms and Flooding in July 2025. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (15), Flood (3), Severe Ice Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| May 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| September 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| January 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| March 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| February 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| June 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 25 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Vernon County?
Vernon County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 46.0 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 46th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Vernon County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (High, $2M EAL), Heat Wave (Low, $1M EAL), Ice Storm (Medium, $264K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Vernon County compare to other Missouri counties?
Vernon County ranks #66 of 115 Missouri counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Vernon County had?
FEMA records 25 federal disaster declarations for Vernon County since 1976, most often 15 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding, declared in July 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Vernon County's $14M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.