Dallas County, Missouri Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MO
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 42th
Dallas County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 41.7, 42th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $10M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Dallas County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 41.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 42nd national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Very High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.85 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $690K in expected annual loss and about 54.65 events per year; and wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $183K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $10M in expected annual loss for a population of 17K.
Beyond physical exposure, Dallas County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Dallas County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 14 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding (severe storm), declared in July 2020.
Among 115 Missouri counties, Dallas County ranks #71 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | Very High | 0.85 / yr | $2M |
| Lightning | High | 54.65 / yr | $690K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $183K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 13.16 / yr | $784K |
| Drought | Low | 4.28 / yr | $232K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.35 / yr | $1M |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $347K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 12.05 / yr | $63K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 5.07 / yr | $492K |
| Hail | Low | 6.50 / yr | $162K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.33 / yr | $490 |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 3.00 / yr | $4M |
| Cold Wave | Low | 2.37 / yr | $432K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $3K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Dallas County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding in July 2020. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (14), Flood (4), Severe Ice Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2020 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| June 2017 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| January 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| January 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| August 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| September 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| March 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 25 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Dallas County?
Dallas County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 41.7 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 42th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Dallas County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (Very High, $2M EAL), Lightning (High, $690K EAL), Wildfire (Low, $183K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Dallas County compare to other Missouri counties?
Dallas County ranks #71 of 115 Missouri counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Dallas County had?
FEMA records 25 federal disaster declarations for Dallas County since 1973, most often 14 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding, declared in July 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Dallas County's $10M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.