Barton County, Missouri Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MO
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 44th
Barton County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 43.6, 44th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and ice storm exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $12M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Barton County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 43.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 44th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 16.14 events per year; ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $426K in expected annual loss and about 1.04 events per year; and strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Medium risk — $852K in expected annual loss and about 5.61 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $12M in expected annual loss for a population of 12K.
Beyond physical exposure, Barton County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Barton County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1976, including 11 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (severe storm), declared in September 2023.
Among 115 Missouri counties, Barton County ranks #70 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | High | 16.14 / yr | $2M |
| Ice Storm | High | 1.04 / yr | $426K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 5.61 / yr | $852K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.44 / yr | $2M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 16.32 / yr | $533K |
| Hail | Low | 7.15 / yr | $245K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $255K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 11.21 / yr | $53K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 2.16 / yr | $753K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 3.43 / yr | $5M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.10 / yr | $355 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $11K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 54.77 / yr | $54K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $3K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Barton County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1976, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in September 2023. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (11), Flood (5), Severe Ice Storm (5).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| September 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| June 2017 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| January 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| January 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| July 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| March 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| February 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Barton County?
Barton County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 43.6 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 44th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Barton County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (High, $2M EAL), Ice Storm (High, $426K EAL), Strong Wind (Medium, $852K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Barton County compare to other Missouri counties?
Barton County ranks #70 of 115 Missouri counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Barton County had?
FEMA records 24 federal disaster declarations for Barton County since 1976, most often 11 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in September 2023.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Barton County's $12M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.