Ray County, Missouri Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MO
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 44th
Ray County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 44.4, 44th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $13M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Ray County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 44.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 44th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $15K in expected annual loss and about 0.24 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 2.63 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Low risk — $895K in expected annual loss and about 12.11 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $13M in expected annual loss for a population of 23K.
Beyond physical exposure, Ray County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Ray County has received 33 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 17 for severe storm events and 8 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (severe storm), declared in September 2021.
Among 115 Missouri counties, Ray County ranks #69 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Low | 0.24 / yr | $15K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 2.63 / yr | $3M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 12.11 / yr | $895K |
| Drought | Medium | 14.14 / yr | $380K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 10.58 / yr | $99K |
| Hail | Low | 6.89 / yr | $408K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.80 / yr | $141K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.32 / yr | $2M |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $60K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.68 / yr | $6M |
| Lightning | Low | 48.79 / yr | $176K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 5.15 / yr | $402K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $108K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Ray County has received 33 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in September 2021. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (17), Flood (8), Severe Ice Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| September 2021 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| August 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| August 2011 | Flood | Flooding |
| June 2011 | Flood | Flooding |
| March 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| February 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 33 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Ray County?
Ray County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 44.4 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 44th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Ray County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Low, $15K EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $3M EAL), Heat Wave (Low, $895K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Ray County compare to other Missouri counties?
Ray County ranks #69 of 115 Missouri counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Ray County had?
FEMA records 33 federal disaster declarations for Ray County since 1965, most often 17 for severe storm events and 8 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in September 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Ray County's $13M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.