Buchanan County, Missouri Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MO
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 74th
Buchanan County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 74.4, 74th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and heat wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $35M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Buchanan County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 74.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 74th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 8.61 events per year; heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 12.26 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $7M in expected annual loss and about 0.30 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $35M in expected annual loss for a population of 85K.
Beyond physical exposure, Buchanan County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Buchanan County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 11 for severe storm events and 9 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (severe storm), declared in September 2021.
Among 115 Missouri counties, Buchanan County ranks #25 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hail | Medium | 8.61 / yr | $2M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 12.26 / yr | $3M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.30 / yr | $7M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 3.53 / yr | $6M |
| Strong Wind | High | 6.42 / yr | $2M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.26 / yr | $25K |
| Lightning | Medium | 48.38 / yr | $702K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 11.32 / yr | $164K |
| Drought | Medium | 18.69 / yr | $633K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.78 / yr | $262K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 3.71 / yr | $13M |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $78K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $219K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Buchanan County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in September 2021. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (11), Flood (9), Severe Ice Storm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| September 2021 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| August 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| August 2011 | Flood | Flooding |
| June 2011 | Flood | Flooding |
| March 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| February 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 28 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Buchanan County?
Buchanan County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 74.4 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 74th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Buchanan County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (Medium, $2M EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $3M EAL), Tornado (Medium, $7M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Buchanan County compare to other Missouri counties?
Buchanan County ranks #25 of 115 Missouri counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Buchanan County had?
FEMA records 28 federal disaster declarations for Buchanan County since 1965, most often 11 for severe storm events and 9 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in September 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Buchanan County's $35M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.