Cole County, Missouri Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MO
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 73th
Cole County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 73.4, 73th national percentile), driven primarily by heat wave and ice storm exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $43M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Cole County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 73.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 73rd national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Cole County's expected losses come from heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $7M in expected annual loss and about 12.26 events per year; ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 1.00 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $7M in expected annual loss and about 0.19 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $43M in expected annual loss for a population of 77K.
Beyond physical exposure, Cole County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Cole County has received 26 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 11 for severe storm events and 7 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 115 Missouri counties, Cole County ranks #27 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Heat Wave | Medium | 12.26 / yr | $7M |
| Ice Storm | High | 1.00 / yr | $1M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.19 / yr | $7M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $3M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 9.42 / yr | $282K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.60 / yr | $18K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 3.56 / yr | $2M |
| Lightning | Medium | 52.61 / yr | $748K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.36 / yr | $20M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $262K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 2.05 / yr | $2M |
| Hail | Low | 4.75 / yr | $323K |
| Drought | Low | 6.64 / yr | $81K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $7K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Cole County has received 26 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (11), Flood (7), Severe Ice Storm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| June 2017 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| January 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| January 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| August 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| June 2011 | Flood | Flooding |
| March 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| February 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 26 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Cole County?
Cole County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 73.4 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 73th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Cole County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Heat Wave (Medium, $7M EAL), Ice Storm (High, $1M EAL), Tornado (Medium, $7M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Cole County compare to other Missouri counties?
Cole County ranks #27 of 115 Missouri counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Cole County had?
FEMA records 26 federal disaster declarations for Cole County since 1973, most often 11 for severe storm events and 7 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Cole County's $43M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.