Lafayette County, Missouri Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MO
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 53th
Lafayette County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 52.5, 53th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and heat wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $20M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Lafayette County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 52.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 53rd national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $7M in expected annual loss and about 2.26 events per year; heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Low risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 12.95 events per year; and landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $8K in expected annual loss and about 0.19 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $20M in expected annual loss for a population of 33K.
Beyond physical exposure, Lafayette County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Lafayette County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 10 for severe storm events and 7 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 115 Missouri counties, Lafayette County ranks #59 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | Medium | 2.26 / yr | $7M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 12.95 / yr | $1M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.19 / yr | $8K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.88 / yr | $254K |
| Drought | Medium | 9.42 / yr | $536K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.34 / yr | $3M |
| Hail | Low | 6.60 / yr | $547K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 4.87 / yr | $748K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $265K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 10.37 / yr | $62K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 3.00 / yr | $7M |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $21K |
| Lightning | Low | 49.15 / yr | $141K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $5K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Lafayette County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (10), Flood (7), Severe Ice Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| August 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| August 2011 | Flood | Flooding |
| June 2011 | Flood | Flooding |
| March 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| February 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| August 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
| January 2009 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 25 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Lafayette County?
Lafayette County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 52.5 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 53th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Lafayette County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (Medium, $7M EAL), Heat Wave (Low, $1M EAL), Landslide (Low, $8K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Lafayette County compare to other Missouri counties?
Lafayette County ranks #59 of 115 Missouri counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Lafayette County had?
FEMA records 25 federal disaster declarations for Lafayette County since 1965, most often 10 for severe storm events and 7 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Lafayette County's $20M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.