St. Louis County, Minnesota Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MN
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 92th
St. Louis County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 91.6, 92th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $112M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in St. Louis County is medium, with a National Risk Index score of 91.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 92nd national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Very High risk — $51M in expected annual loss and about 14.89 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Very High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 17.56 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Very High risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 27.24 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $112M in expected annual loss for a population of 200K.
Beyond physical exposure, St. Louis County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: St. Louis County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1970, including 9 for flood events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Munger Shaw Fire (fire), declared in May 2025.
Among 87 Minnesota counties, St. Louis County ranks #3 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | Very High | 14.89 / yr | $51M |
| Winter Weather | Very High | 17.56 / yr | $1M |
| Lightning | Very High | 27.24 / yr | $3M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.46 / yr | $50M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 0.34 / yr | $2M |
| Hail | Medium | 0.93 / yr | $1M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $512K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 0.71 / yr | $1M |
| Tornado | Low | 0.39 / yr | $2M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.16 / yr | $168K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 2.39 / yr | $2K |
| Drought | Low | 12.68 / yr | $89K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $9K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $3K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
St. Louis County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1970, most recently Munger Shaw Fire in May 2025. Most frequent causes: Flood (9), Severe Storm (3), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | Fire | Munger Shaw Fire |
| June 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| July 2023 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| July 2022 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| February 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2018 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| July 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
Showing the 10 most recent of 17 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for St. Louis County?
St. Louis County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 91.6 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 92th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in St. Louis County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (Very High, $51M EAL), Winter Weather (Very High, $1M EAL), Lightning (Very High, $3M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does St. Louis County compare to other Minnesota counties?
St. Louis County ranks #3 of 87 Minnesota counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has St. Louis County had?
FEMA records 17 federal disaster declarations for St. Louis County since 1970, most often 9 for flood events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Munger Shaw Fire, declared in May 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. St. Louis County's $112M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.