Dakota County, Minnesota Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MN
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 90th
Dakota County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 89.5, 90th national percentile), driven primarily by strong wind and hail exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $134M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Dakota County at medium composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 89.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 90th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Dakota County's expected losses come from strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Very High risk — $19M in expected annual loss and about 4.75 events per year; hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at High risk — $8M in expected annual loss and about 6.38 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at High risk — $32M in expected annual loss and about 0.47 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $134M in expected annual loss for a population of 440K.
Beyond physical exposure, Dakota County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Dakota County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 6 for flood events and 5 for severe storm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in April 2020.
Among 87 Minnesota counties, Dakota County ranks #4 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Strong Wind | Very High | 4.75 / yr | $19M |
| Hail | High | 6.38 / yr | $8M |
| Tornado | High | 0.47 / yr | $32M |
| Winter Weather | High | 17.79 / yr | $771K |
| Cold Wave | High | 8.89 / yr | $12M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 0.96 / yr | $57M |
| Lightning | High | 37.40 / yr | $2M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 6.16 / yr | $3M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.13 / yr | $10K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.35 / yr | $184K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $42K |
| Drought | Low | 1.87 / yr | $50K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $53K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Dakota County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in April 2020. Most frequent causes: Flood (6), Severe Storm (5), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| March 2010 | Flood | Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| May 2001 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
| June 2000 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| June 1998 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Straight Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| April 1997 | Flood | Severe Flooding, High Winds,Severe Storms |
| June 1996 | Flood | Flooding and Severe Storms |
Showing the 10 most recent of 16 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Dakota County?
Dakota County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 89.5 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 90th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Dakota County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Strong Wind (Very High, $19M EAL), Hail (High, $8M EAL), Tornado (High, $32M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Dakota County compare to other Minnesota counties?
Dakota County ranks #4 of 87 Minnesota counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Dakota County had?
FEMA records 16 federal disaster declarations for Dakota County since 1965, most often 6 for flood events and 5 for severe storm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in April 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Dakota County's $134M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.