Sherburne County, Minnesota Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MN
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 54th
Sherburne County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 53.6, 54th national percentile), driven primarily by strong wind and hail exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $31M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Sherburne County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 53.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 54th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 4.00 events per year; hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 6.05 events per year; and wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $519K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $31M in expected annual loss for a population of 97K.
Beyond physical exposure, Sherburne County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Sherburne County has received 10 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 4 for flood events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in April 2020.
Among 87 Minnesota counties, Sherburne County ranks #26 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Strong Wind | High | 4.00 / yr | $3M |
| Hail | Medium | 6.05 / yr | $1M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $519K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.28 / yr | $4M |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.21 / yr | $17M |
| Drought | Low | 9.09 / yr | $544K |
| Lightning | Medium | 33.58 / yr | $605K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 3.37 / yr | $943K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 10.84 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | Low | 16.79 / yr | $117K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.48 / yr | $133K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.07 / yr | $1K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $11K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Sherburne County has received 10 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in April 2020. Most frequent causes: Flood (4), Biological (2), Severe Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| August 1997 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, High Winds, Flooding |
| April 1997 | Flood | Severe Flooding, High Winds,Severe Storms |
| January 1997 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| June 1976 | Drought | Drought |
| April 1969 | Flood | Flooding |
| March 1966 | Flood | Flooding |
| April 1965 | Flood | Flooding |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Sherburne County?
Sherburne County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 53.6 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 54th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Sherburne County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Strong Wind (High, $3M EAL), Hail (Medium, $1M EAL), Wildfire (Low, $519K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Sherburne County compare to other Minnesota counties?
Sherburne County ranks #26 of 87 Minnesota counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Sherburne County had?
FEMA records 10 federal disaster declarations for Sherburne County since 1965, most often 4 for flood events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in April 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Sherburne County's $31M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.