Carver County, Minnesota Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MN
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 60th
Carver County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 59.7, 60th national percentile), driven primarily by strong wind and hail exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $41M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Carver County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 59.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 60th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Carver County's expected losses come from strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 4.72 events per year; hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 6.57 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $8M in expected annual loss and about 0.31 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $41M in expected annual loss for a population of 107K.
Beyond physical exposure, Carver County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Carver County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 9 for flood events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding (flood), declared in June 2024.
Among 87 Minnesota counties, Carver County ranks #24 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Strong Wind | High | 4.72 / yr | $5M |
| Hail | Medium | 6.57 / yr | $2M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.31 / yr | $8M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 9.84 / yr | $5M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 6.26 / yr | $2M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.09 / yr | $9K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.60 / yr | $284K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.89 / yr | $18M |
| Winter Weather | Low | 17.32 / yr | $125K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $49K |
| Lightning | Low | 36.52 / yr | $300K |
| Drought | Low | 3.28 / yr | $92K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $17K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Carver County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Severe Storms and Flooding in June 2024. Most frequent causes: Flood (9), Severe Storm (3), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| June 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2014 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| May 2011 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| October 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| April 2010 | Flood | Flooding |
| March 2010 | Flood | Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| May 2001 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
Showing the 10 most recent of 17 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Carver County?
Carver County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 59.7 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 60th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Carver County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Strong Wind (High, $5M EAL), Hail (Medium, $2M EAL), Tornado (Medium, $8M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Carver County compare to other Minnesota counties?
Carver County ranks #24 of 87 Minnesota counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Carver County had?
FEMA records 17 federal disaster declarations for Carver County since 1965, most often 9 for flood events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding, declared in June 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Carver County's $41M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.