Aitkin County, Minnesota Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MN
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 57th
Aitkin County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 56.6, 57th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and riverine flood exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $15M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Aitkin County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 56.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 57th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Aitkin County's expected losses come from cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 14.31 events per year; riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Low risk — $10M in expected annual loss and about 0.79 events per year; and landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $5K in expected annual loss and about 0.36 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $15M in expected annual loss for a population of 16K.
Beyond physical exposure, Aitkin County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Higher vulnerability is partly offset by strong community resilience and recovery capacity.
The federal record bears this out: Aitkin County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 11 for flood events and 6 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding (flood), declared in July 2023.
Among 87 Minnesota counties, Aitkin County ranks #25 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | Medium | 14.31 / yr | $4M |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.79 / yr | $10M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.36 / yr | $5K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $59K |
| Lightning | Low | 29.82 / yr | $193K |
| Hail | Low | 2.32 / yr | $175K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 1.32 / yr | $217K |
| Drought | Low | 13.31 / yr | $72K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 1.61 / yr | $275K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.36 / yr | $32K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.39 / yr | $271K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 17.89 / yr | $15K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $2K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Aitkin County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Severe Storms and Flooding in July 2023. Most frequent causes: Flood (11), Severe Storm (6), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2023 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| August 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| July 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2018 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| July 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| May 2001 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
| July 1999 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Winds, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Aitkin County?
Aitkin County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 56.6 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 57th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Aitkin County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (Medium, $4M EAL), Riverine Flood (Low, $10M EAL), Landslide (Low, $5K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Aitkin County compare to other Minnesota counties?
Aitkin County ranks #25 of 87 Minnesota counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Aitkin County had?
FEMA records 21 federal disaster declarations for Aitkin County since 1965, most often 11 for flood events and 6 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding, declared in July 2023.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Aitkin County's $15M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.