Clay County, Minnesota Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MN
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 74th
Clay County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 73.7, 74th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $42M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Clay County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 73.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 74th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 24.42 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $7M in expected annual loss and about 18.42 events per year; and riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $28M in expected annual loss and about 1.64 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $42M in expected annual loss for a population of 65K.
Beyond physical exposure, Clay County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Clay County has received 29 federal disaster declarations since 1966, including 15 for flood events and 10 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding (flood), declared in July 2023.
Among 87 Minnesota counties, Clay County ranks #14 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Winter Weather | High | 24.42 / yr | $1M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 18.42 / yr | $7M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.64 / yr | $28M |
| Hail | Medium | 4.08 / yr | $1M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 2.54 / yr | $2M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $165K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.69 / yr | $2M |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.19 / yr | $115K |
| Drought | Low | 2.41 / yr | $180K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.12 / yr | $2K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 1.47 / yr | $278K |
| Lightning | Low | 29.68 / yr | $142K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $20K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Clay County has received 29 federal disaster declarations since 1966, most recently Severe Storms and Flooding in July 2023. Most frequent causes: Flood (15), Severe Storm (10), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2023 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2019 | Flood | Severe Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| May 2011 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| April 2010 | Flood | Flooding |
| March 2010 | Flood | Flooding |
| April 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| March 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| June 2006 | Flood | Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 29 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Clay County?
Clay County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 73.7 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 74th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Clay County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (High, $1M EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $7M EAL), Riverine Flood (Medium, $28M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Clay County compare to other Minnesota counties?
Clay County ranks #14 of 87 Minnesota counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Clay County had?
FEMA records 29 federal disaster declarations for Clay County since 1966, most often 15 for flood events and 10 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding, declared in July 2023.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Clay County's $42M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.