Pine County, Minnesota Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MN
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 62th
Pine County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 62.2, 62th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and hail exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $22M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Pine County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 62.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 62nd national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Pine County's expected losses come from cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $6M in expected annual loss and about 11.26 events per year; hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $721K in expected annual loss and about 2.95 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Medium risk — $510K in expected annual loss and about 31.29 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $22M in expected annual loss for a population of 29K.
Beyond physical exposure, Pine County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Pine County has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 7 for flood events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding (flood), declared in July 2023.
Among 87 Minnesota counties, Pine County ranks #22 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | Medium | 11.26 / yr | $6M |
| Hail | Medium | 2.95 / yr | $721K |
| Lightning | Medium | 31.29 / yr | $510K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.50 / yr | $12M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $120K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.41 / yr | $1M |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.44 / yr | $73K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 1.84 / yr | $271K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 2.06 / yr | $399K |
| Drought | Low | 9.51 / yr | $63K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 18.58 / yr | $31K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.24 / yr | $37 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $3K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Pine County has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Severe Storms and Flooding in July 2023. Most frequent causes: Flood (7), Severe Storm (3), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2023 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| August 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2018 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| July 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| July 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| May 2001 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
| October 2000 | Fire | Mn - Carlos Edge Fire Complex - 10/19/2000 |
Showing the 10 most recent of 15 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Pine County?
Pine County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 62.2 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 62th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Pine County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (Medium, $6M EAL), Hail (Medium, $721K EAL), Lightning (Medium, $510K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Pine County compare to other Minnesota counties?
Pine County ranks #22 of 87 Minnesota counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Pine County had?
FEMA records 15 federal disaster declarations for Pine County since 1965, most often 7 for flood events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding, declared in July 2023.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Pine County's $22M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.