Polk County, Minnesota Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MN
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 67th
Polk County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 67.0, 67th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $27M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Polk County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 67.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 67th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $481K in expected annual loss and about 22.66 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $7M in expected annual loss and about 20.77 events per year; and drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 8.35 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $27M in expected annual loss for a population of 31K.
Beyond physical exposure, Polk County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Polk County has received 31 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 17 for flood events and 8 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding (flood), declared in July 2022.
Among 87 Minnesota counties, Polk County ranks #20 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Winter Weather | High | 22.66 / yr | $481K |
| Cold Wave | High | 20.77 / yr | $7M |
| Drought | Medium | 8.35 / yr | $2M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.01 / yr | $608K |
| Hail | Medium | 3.59 / yr | $1M |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.71 / yr | $13M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 2.01 / yr | $870K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.27 / yr | $107K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.21 / yr | $2K |
| Tornado | Low | 1.21 / yr | $1M |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 1.07 / yr | $99K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 27.56 / yr | $55K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $6K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Polk County has received 31 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding in July 2022. Most frequent causes: Flood (17), Severe Storm (8), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2022 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2019 | Flood | Severe Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| September 2018 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| May 2011 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| July 2010 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2010 | Flood | Flooding |
| March 2010 | Flood | Flooding |
| April 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 31 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Polk County?
Polk County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 67.0 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 67th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Polk County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (High, $481K EAL), Cold Wave (High, $7M EAL), Drought (Medium, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Polk County compare to other Minnesota counties?
Polk County ranks #20 of 87 Minnesota counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Polk County had?
FEMA records 31 federal disaster declarations for Polk County since 1965, most often 17 for flood events and 8 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding, declared in July 2022.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Polk County's $27M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.