Pennington County, Minnesota Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MN
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 47th
Pennington County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 47.0, 47th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $18M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Pennington County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 47.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 47th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $618K in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Medium risk — $215K in expected annual loss and about 20.00 events per year; and drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $630K in expected annual loss and about 19.21 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $18M in expected annual loss for a population of 14K.
Beyond physical exposure, Pennington County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Pennington County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1966, including 11 for flood events and 4 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding (flood), declared in July 2022.
Among 87 Minnesota counties, Pennington County ranks #34 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | Low | 0.01 / yr | $618K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 20.00 / yr | $215K |
| Drought | Medium | 19.21 / yr | $630K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.50 / yr | $14M |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.26 / yr | $103K |
| Hail | Low | 3.02 / yr | $225K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 20.64 / yr | $815K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.31 / yr | $480K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 1.61 / yr | $228K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.05 / yr | $116 |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.84 / yr | $41K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 26.93 / yr | $58K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $3K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Pennington County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1966, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding in July 2022. Most frequent causes: Flood (11), Severe Storm (4), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2022 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2019 | Flood | Severe Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| April 2010 | Flood | Flooding |
| April 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| June 2002 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding and Tornadoes |
| August 1999 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Ice Storm and Flooding |
| April 1997 | Flood | Severe Flooding, High Winds,Severe Storms |
Showing the 10 most recent of 20 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Pennington County?
Pennington County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 47.0 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 47th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Pennington County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (Low, $618K EAL), Winter Weather (Medium, $215K EAL), Drought (Medium, $630K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Pennington County compare to other Minnesota counties?
Pennington County ranks #34 of 87 Minnesota counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Pennington County had?
FEMA records 20 federal disaster declarations for Pennington County since 1966, most often 11 for flood events and 4 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding, declared in July 2022.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Pennington County's $18M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.