Nobles County, Minnesota Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MN
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 50th
Nobles County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 50.2, 50th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $13M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Nobles County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 50.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 50th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 5.53 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $363K in expected annual loss and about 20.89 events per year; and cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 11.95 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $13M in expected annual loss for a population of 22K.
Beyond physical exposure, Nobles County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Nobles County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including 9 for severe storm events and 7 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding (flood), declared in June 2024.
Among 87 Minnesota counties, Nobles County ranks #32 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hail | Medium | 5.53 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | High | 20.89 / yr | $363K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 11.95 / yr | $2M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.56 / yr | $2M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 1.03 / yr | $206K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 3.92 / yr | $767K |
| Drought | Medium | 9.37 / yr | $342K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.07 / yr | $5M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 3.63 / yr | $218K |
| Lightning | Low | 38.38 / yr | $93K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.07 / yr | $168 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $24K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $6K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Nobles County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1969, most recently Severe Storms and Flooding in June 2024. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (9), Flood (7), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| June 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| August 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| July 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2019 | Flood | Severe Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| September 2018 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| July 2014 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| May 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| October 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Nobles County?
Nobles County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 50.2 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 50th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Nobles County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (Medium, $2M EAL), Winter Weather (High, $363K EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Nobles County compare to other Minnesota counties?
Nobles County ranks #32 of 87 Minnesota counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Nobles County had?
FEMA records 21 federal disaster declarations for Nobles County since 1969, most often 9 for severe storm events and 7 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding, declared in June 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Nobles County's $13M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.