Carlton County, Minnesota Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MN
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 70th
Carlton County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 70.1, 70th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $32M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Carlton County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 70.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 70th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Carlton County's expected losses come from cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $18M in expected annual loss and about 15.74 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Medium risk — $471K in expected annual loss and about 29.73 events per year; and riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Low risk — $11M in expected annual loss and about 0.64 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $32M in expected annual loss for a population of 36K.
Beyond physical exposure, Carlton County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Carlton County has received 10 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 5 for flood events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding (flood), declared in July 2023.
Among 87 Minnesota counties, Carlton County ranks #16 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | High | 15.74 / yr | $18M |
| Lightning | Medium | 29.73 / yr | $471K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.64 / yr | $11M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 0.95 / yr | $677K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.50 / yr | $105K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 23.79 / yr | $65K |
| Hail | Low | 2.01 / yr | $253K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $31K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.12 / yr | $694K |
| Drought | Low | 9.71 / yr | $38K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 1.35 / yr | $246K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.19 / yr | $65 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $2K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Carlton County has received 10 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Severe Storms and Flooding in July 2023. Most frequent causes: Flood (5), Biological (2), Severe Storm (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2023 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2018 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| July 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| May 2001 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
| June 1976 | Drought | Drought |
| August 1972 | Flood | Severe Storms & Flooding |
| August 1972 | Flood | Severe Storms & Flooding |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Carlton County?
Carlton County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 70.1 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 70th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Carlton County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (High, $18M EAL), Lightning (Medium, $471K EAL), Riverine Flood (Low, $11M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Carlton County compare to other Minnesota counties?
Carlton County ranks #16 of 87 Minnesota counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Carlton County had?
FEMA records 10 federal disaster declarations for Carlton County since 1972, most often 5 for flood events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding, declared in July 2023.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Carlton County's $32M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.