Carlton County
Minnesota — Natural Disaster Risk Assessment
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 70th
Carlton County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 70.1, 70th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $32M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | High | 15.74 / yr | $18M |
| Lightning | Medium | 29.73 / yr | $471K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.64 / yr | $11M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 0.95 / yr | $677K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.50 / yr | $105K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 23.79 / yr | $65K |
| Hail | Low | 2.01 / yr | $253K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $31K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.12 / yr | $694K |
| Drought | Low | 9.71 / yr | $38K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 1.35 / yr | $246K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.19 / yr | $65 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $2K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Carlton County?
Carlton County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 70.1 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 70th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Carlton County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (High, $18M EAL), Lightning (Medium, $471K EAL), Riverine Flood (Low, $11M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Carlton County compare to other Minnesota counties?
Carlton County ranks #16 of 87 Minnesota counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Carlton County's $32M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.