Otsego County, Michigan Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MI
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 18th
Otsego County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 18.4, 18th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and landslide exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $8M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Otsego County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 18.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 18th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Low risk — $671K in expected annual loss and about 0.98 events per year; landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $4K in expected annual loss and about 0.15 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Medium risk — $437K in expected annual loss and about 24.65 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $8M in expected annual loss for a population of 25K.
Beyond physical exposure, Otsego County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Otsego County has received 7 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 2 for biological events and 2 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (severe ice storm), declared in July 2025.
Among 83 Michigan counties, Otsego County ranks #71 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hail | Low | 0.98 / yr | $671K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.15 / yr | $4K |
| Lightning | Medium | 24.65 / yr | $437K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.74 / yr | $2M |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $38K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 0.87 / yr | $494K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.04 / yr | $4M |
| Tornado | Low | 0.08 / yr | $492K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $6K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.74 / yr | $54K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 32.58 / yr | $12K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $11K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.07 / yr | $6K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Otsego County has received 7 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Severe Winter Storm in July 2025. Most frequent causes: Biological (2), Snowstorm (2), Severe Ice Storm (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2025 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| January 1999 | Snowstorm | Mi - Severe Weather 1/2 /99 |
| January 1978 | Snowstorm | Blizzards & Snowstorms |
| March 1977 | Drought | Drought |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Otsego County?
Otsego County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 18.4 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 18th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Otsego County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (Low, $671K EAL), Landslide (Low, $4K EAL), Lightning (Medium, $437K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Otsego County compare to other Michigan counties?
Otsego County ranks #71 of 83 Michigan counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Otsego County had?
FEMA records 7 federal disaster declarations for Otsego County since 1977, most often 2 for biological events and 2 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in July 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Otsego County's $8M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.