Arenac County, Michigan Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MI
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 20th
Arenac County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 20.3, 20th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $6M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Arenac County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 20.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 20th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Arenac County's expected losses come from winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Medium risk — $101K in expected annual loss and about 11.95 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Low risk — $929K in expected annual loss and about 2.16 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Low risk — $213K in expected annual loss and about 28.45 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $6M in expected annual loss for a population of 15K.
Beyond physical exposure, Arenac County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Higher vulnerability is partly offset by strong community resilience and recovery capacity.
The federal record bears this out: Arenac County has received 11 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 3 for flood events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding (dam/levee break), declared in July 2020.
Among 83 Michigan counties, Arenac County ranks #70 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Winter Weather | Medium | 11.95 / yr | $101K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 2.16 / yr | $929K |
| Lightning | Low | 28.45 / yr | $213K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 2.11 / yr | $419K |
| Hail | Low | 1.64 / yr | $159K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $12K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.46 / yr | $4M |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $16K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.16 / yr | $460K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $11K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.05 / yr | $239 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.39 / yr | $21K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $19K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 1.00 / yr | $25K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Arenac County has received 11 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Severe Storms and Flooding in July 2020. Most frequent causes: Flood (3), Biological (2), Snowstorm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2020 | Dam/Levee Break | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| June 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| January 1999 | Snowstorm | Mi - Severe Weather 1/2 /99 |
| September 1986 | Flood | Severe Storms & Flooding |
| January 1978 | Snowstorm | Blizzards & Snowstorms |
| March 1977 | Drought | Drought |
| April 1973 | Flood | Severe Storms & Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 11 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Arenac County?
Arenac County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 20.3 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 20th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Arenac County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (Medium, $101K EAL), Cold Wave (Low, $929K EAL), Lightning (Low, $213K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Arenac County compare to other Michigan counties?
Arenac County ranks #70 of 83 Michigan counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Arenac County had?
FEMA records 11 federal disaster declarations for Arenac County since 1972, most often 3 for flood events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding, declared in July 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Arenac County's $6M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.