Oscoda County, Michigan Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MI
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 15th
Oscoda County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 15.1, 15th national percentile), driven primarily by lightning and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $4M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Oscoda County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 15.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 15th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 25.93 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $190K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Very Low risk — $2K in expected annual loss and about 0.18 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $4M in expected annual loss for a population of 8K.
Beyond physical exposure, Oscoda County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Oscoda County has received 8 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 2 for biological events and 2 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding (flood), declared in June 2026.
Among 83 Michigan counties, Oscoda County ranks #75 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Lightning | High | 25.93 / yr | $1M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $190K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.18 / yr | $2K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 2.16 / yr | $406K |
| Hail | Very Low | 1.07 / yr | $84K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.11 / yr | $2M |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.09 / yr | $200K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $3K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 0.96 / yr | $99K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.84 / yr | $12K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $5K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 17.05 / yr | $3K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.08 / yr | $2K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Oscoda County has received 8 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding in June 2026. Most frequent causes: Biological (2), Snowstorm (2), Flood (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| June 2026 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| July 2025 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| January 1999 | Snowstorm | Mi - Severe Weather 1/2 /99 |
| January 1978 | Snowstorm | Blizzards & Snowstorms |
| March 1977 | Drought | Drought |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Oscoda County?
Oscoda County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 15.1 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 15th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Oscoda County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Lightning (High, $1M EAL), Wildfire (Low, $190K EAL), Landslide (Very Low, $2K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Oscoda County compare to other Michigan counties?
Oscoda County ranks #75 of 83 Michigan counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Oscoda County had?
FEMA records 8 federal disaster declarations for Oscoda County since 1977, most often 2 for biological events and 2 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in June 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Oscoda County's $4M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.