Ontonagon County, Michigan Natural Disaster Risk

FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MI

Very Low

Composite Risk Score

4.2

National percentile: 4th

Ontonagon County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 4.2, 4th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $2M.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025

Risk Overview

FEMA's National Risk Index rates Ontonagon County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 4.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 4th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.

Most of Ontonagon County's expected losses come from winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Low risk — $70K in expected annual loss and about 38.84 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Low risk — $676K in expected annual loss and about 4.11 events per year; and wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Very Low risk — $13K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $2M in expected annual loss for a population of 6K.

Beyond physical exposure, Ontonagon County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Higher vulnerability is partly offset by strong community resilience and recovery capacity.

The county's disaster history tells the same story: Ontonagon County has received 8 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 2 for biological events and 2 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.

Among 83 Michigan counties, Ontonagon County ranks #81 for overall natural disaster risk.

Expected Annual Loss $2M Annualized county-level EAL
Social Vulnerability High Population sensitivity
Community Resilience High Capacity to recover
Population 6K Latest estimate

Top Hazards

Low $70K/yr
Low $676K/yr
Very Low $13K/yr

All 18 Hazard Risks

Winter Weather Low 38.84 / yr$70K
Cold Wave Low 4.11 / yr$676K
Wildfire Very Low 0.00 / yr$13K
Lightning Low 23.83 / yr$79K
Drought Very Low 2.88 / yr$6K
Strong Wind Very Low 0.82 / yr$118K
Hail Very Low 0.74 / yr$45K
Coastal Flood Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Riverine Flood Very Low 0.29 / yr$1M
Landslide Very Low 0.33 / yr$16
Tornado Very Low 0.15 / yr$32K
Heat Wave Very Low 0.32 / yr$6K
Ice Storm Very Low 0.01 / yr$717
Avalanche Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Earthquake Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Hurricane Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Tsunami Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Volcanic Activity Very Low 0.00 / yr$0

Disaster History

Ontonagon County has received 8 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Biological (2), Flood (2), Hurricane (1).

DeclaredTypeDisaster
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19 Pandemic
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19
June 2013FloodFlooding
September 2005HurricaneHurricane Katrina Evacuation
May 2002FloodFlooding
May 1994FreezingSevere Deep Freeze
January 1978SnowstormBlizzards & Snowstorms
March 1977DroughtDrought

Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall natural disaster risk for Ontonagon County?

Ontonagon County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 4.2 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 4th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.

What are the top natural hazards in Ontonagon County?

The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (Low, $70K EAL), Cold Wave (Low, $676K EAL), Wildfire (Very Low, $13K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.

How does Ontonagon County compare to other Michigan counties?

Ontonagon County ranks #81 of 83 Michigan counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.

How many federally declared disasters has Ontonagon County had?

FEMA records 8 federal disaster declarations for Ontonagon County since 1977, most often 2 for biological events and 2 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.

What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?

EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Ontonagon County's $2M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.