Luce County, Michigan Natural Disaster Risk

FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MI

Very Low

Composite Risk Score

2.6

National percentile: 3th

Luce County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 2.6, 3th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $2M.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025

Risk Overview

FEMA's National Risk Index rates Luce County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 2.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 3rd national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.

Most of Luce County's expected losses come from landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Very Low risk — $940 in expected annual loss and about 0.18 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Very Low risk — $26K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Very Low risk — $72K in expected annual loss and about 0.25 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $2M in expected annual loss for a population of 5K.

Beyond physical exposure, Luce County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.

The county's disaster history tells the same story: Luce County has received 5 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 2 for biological events and 1 for hurricane events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.

Among 83 Michigan counties, Luce County ranks #82 for overall natural disaster risk.

Expected Annual Loss $2M Annualized county-level EAL
Social Vulnerability High Population sensitivity
Community Resilience Medium Capacity to recover
Population 5K Latest estimate

Top Hazards

Very Low $940/yr
Very Low $26K/yr
Very Low $72K/yr

All 18 Hazard Risks

Landslide Very Low 0.18 / yr$940
Wildfire Very Low 0.00 / yr$26K
Hail Very Low 0.25 / yr$72K
Lightning Low 21.08 / yr$64K
Cold Wave Very Low 1.53 / yr$125K
Riverine Flood Very Low 0.04 / yr$1M
Winter Weather Very Low 34.11 / yr$9K
Drought Very Low 0.19 / yr$92
Coastal Flood Very Low 0.01 / yr$0
Strong Wind Very Low 0.25 / yr$33K
Tornado Very Low 0.04 / yr$8K
Heat Wave Very Low 0.11 / yr$2K
Ice Storm Very Low 0.02 / yr$675
Earthquake Very Low 0.00 / yr$2K
Avalanche Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Hurricane Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Tsunami Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Volcanic Activity Very Low 0.00 / yr$0

Disaster History

Luce County has received 5 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Biological (2), Hurricane (1), Snowstorm (1).

DeclaredTypeDisaster
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19 Pandemic
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19
September 2005HurricaneHurricane Katrina Evacuation
January 1978SnowstormBlizzards & Snowstorms
March 1977DroughtDrought

Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall natural disaster risk for Luce County?

Luce County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 2.6 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 3th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.

What are the top natural hazards in Luce County?

The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Very Low, $940 EAL), Wildfire (Very Low, $26K EAL), Hail (Very Low, $72K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.

How does Luce County compare to other Michigan counties?

Luce County ranks #82 of 83 Michigan counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.

How many federally declared disasters has Luce County had?

FEMA records 5 federal disaster declarations for Luce County since 1977, most often 2 for biological events and 1 for hurricane events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.

What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?

EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Luce County's $2M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.