Mackinac County, Michigan Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MI
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 9th
Mackinac County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 9.1, 9th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $3M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Mackinac County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 9.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 9th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Mackinac County's expected losses come from landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Very Low risk — $1K in expected annual loss and about 0.17 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Very Low risk — $30K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Low risk — $534K in expected annual loss and about 2.18 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $3M in expected annual loss for a population of 11K.
Beyond physical exposure, Mackinac County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Higher vulnerability is partly offset by strong community resilience and recovery capacity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Mackinac County has received 7 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 2 for biological events and 1 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (severe ice storm), declared in July 2025.
Among 83 Michigan counties, Mackinac County ranks #79 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.17 / yr | $1K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $30K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 2.18 / yr | $534K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $7K |
| Lightning | Low | 22.57 / yr | $84K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.18 / yr | $3M |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $3K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 23.13 / yr | $9K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.26 / yr | $30K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.08 / yr | $41K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $4K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.29 / yr | $29K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.11 / yr | $3K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $966 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Mackinac County has received 7 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Severe Winter Storm in July 2025. Most frequent causes: Biological (2), Severe Ice Storm (1), Hurricane (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2025 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| May 1994 | Freezing | Severe Deep Freeze |
| January 1978 | Snowstorm | Blizzards & Snowstorms |
| March 1977 | Drought | Drought |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Mackinac County?
Mackinac County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 9.1 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 9th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Mackinac County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Very Low, $1K EAL), Wildfire (Very Low, $30K EAL), Cold Wave (Low, $534K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Mackinac County compare to other Michigan counties?
Mackinac County ranks #79 of 83 Michigan counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Mackinac County had?
FEMA records 7 federal disaster declarations for Mackinac County since 1977, most often 2 for biological events and 1 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in July 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Mackinac County's $3M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.