Rockcastle County, Kentucky Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · KY
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 36th
Rockcastle County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 36.1, 36th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $8M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Rockcastle County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 36.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 36th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $20K in expected annual loss and about 0.76 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Medium risk — $66K in expected annual loss and about 13.26 events per year; and hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Low risk — $262K in expected annual loss and about 3.22 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $8M in expected annual loss for a population of 16K.
Beyond physical exposure, Rockcastle County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Rockcastle County has received 34 federal disaster declarations since 1974, including 14 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in May 2026.
Among 120 Kentucky counties, Rockcastle County ranks #70 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Low | 0.76 / yr | $20K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 13.26 / yr | $66K |
| Hail | Low | 3.22 / yr | $262K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 6.17 / yr | $465K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.89 / yr | $755K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.71 / yr | $5M |
| Tornado | Low | 0.14 / yr | $797K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $28K |
| Lightning | Low | 52.81 / yr | $132K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $107K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 2.84 / yr | $155K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.51 / yr | $33K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.03 / yr | $15K |
| Drought | Very Low | 6.50 / yr | $5K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $8 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Rockcastle County has received 34 federal disaster declarations since 1974, most recently Severe Winter Storm in May 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (14), Flood (4), Snowstorm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| May 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| February 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides |
| November 2024 | Tropical Storm | Remnants of Hurricane Helene |
| July 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
Showing the 10 most recent of 34 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Rockcastle County?
Rockcastle County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 36.1 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 36th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Rockcastle County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Low, $20K EAL), Winter Weather (Medium, $66K EAL), Hail (Low, $262K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Rockcastle County compare to other Kentucky counties?
Rockcastle County ranks #70 of 120 Kentucky counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Rockcastle County had?
FEMA records 34 federal disaster declarations for Rockcastle County since 1974, most often 14 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in May 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Rockcastle County's $8M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.