Magoffin County, Kentucky Natural Disaster Risk

FEMA National Risk Index assessment · KY

Very Low

Composite Risk Score

35.0

National percentile: 35th

Magoffin County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 35.0, 35th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $8M.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025

Risk Overview

Magoffin County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 35.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 35th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.

The county's risk is driven primarily by landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $34K in expected annual loss and about 0.96 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $356K in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; and riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Low risk — $6M in expected annual loss and about 1.57 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $8M in expected annual loss for a population of 12K.

Beyond physical exposure, Magoffin County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.

The federal record bears this out: Magoffin County has received 49 federal disaster declarations since 1967, including 21 for severe storm events and 13 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.

Among 120 Kentucky counties, Magoffin County ranks #72 for overall natural disaster risk.

Expected Annual Loss $8M Annualized county-level EAL
Social Vulnerability High Population sensitivity
Community Resilience Very Low Capacity to recover
Population 12K Latest estimate

Top Hazards

Medium $34K/yr
Low $356K/yr
Low $6M/yr

All 18 Hazard Risks

Landslide Medium 0.96 / yr$34K
Wildfire Low 0.01 / yr$356K
Riverine Flood Low 1.57 / yr$6M
Winter Weather Low 15.68 / yr$39K
Earthquake Very Low 0.00 / yr$111K
Hurricane Very Low 0.02 / yr$17K
Heat Wave Very Low 2.47 / yr$122K
Strong Wind Low 4.09 / yr$210K
Lightning Low 50.58 / yr$73K
Hail Very Low 3.26 / yr$66K
Tornado Very Low 0.06 / yr$201K
Drought Very Low 4.59 / yr$2K
Cold Wave Very Low 0.89 / yr$139K
Ice Storm Very Low 0.27 / yr$10K
Avalanche Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Coastal Flood Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Tsunami Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Volcanic Activity Very Low 0.00 / yr$0

Disaster History

Magoffin County has received 49 federal disaster declarations since 1967, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (21), Flood (13), Snowstorm (4).

DeclaredTypeDisaster
January 2026Winter StormSevere Winter Storm
April 2025Severe StormSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides
April 2025Severe StormSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding
February 2025Severe StormSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides
February 2025Severe StormSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides
November 2024Tropical StormRemnants of Hurricane Helene
May 2023FloodSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides
July 2022FloodSevere Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides
April 2021FloodSevere, Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides
March 2021Severe Ice StormSevere Winter Storms, Landslides, and Mudslides

Showing the 10 most recent of 49 declarations.

Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall natural disaster risk for Magoffin County?

Magoffin County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 35.0 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 35th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.

What are the top natural hazards in Magoffin County?

The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Medium, $34K EAL), Wildfire (Low, $356K EAL), Riverine Flood (Low, $6M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.

How does Magoffin County compare to other Kentucky counties?

Magoffin County ranks #72 of 120 Kentucky counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.

How many federally declared disasters has Magoffin County had?

FEMA records 49 federal disaster declarations for Magoffin County since 1967, most often 21 for severe storm events and 13 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.

What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?

EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Magoffin County's $8M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.