Casey County, Kentucky Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · KY
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 37th
Casey County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 37.1, 37th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and hail exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $8M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Casey County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 37.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 37th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Casey County's expected losses come from winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Medium risk — $78K in expected annual loss and about 8.79 events per year; hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Low risk — $287K in expected annual loss and about 3.15 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Low risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 0.25 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $8M in expected annual loss for a population of 16K.
Beyond physical exposure, Casey County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Casey County has received 34 federal disaster declarations since 1970, including 15 for severe storm events and 7 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in May 2026.
Among 120 Kentucky counties, Casey County ranks #69 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Winter Weather | Medium | 8.79 / yr | $78K |
| Hail | Low | 3.15 / yr | $287K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.25 / yr | $1M |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.89 / yr | $948K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 6.53 / yr | $495K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.93 / yr | $1K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $246K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.75 / yr | $4M |
| Lightning | Low | 54.27 / yr | $132K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $30K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.54 / yr | $43K |
| Drought | Low | 5.68 / yr | $26K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 2.53 / yr | $86K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $4K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Casey County has received 34 federal disaster declarations since 1970, most recently Severe Winter Storm in May 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (15), Flood (7), Severe Ice Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| May 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides |
| April 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| July 2022 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2021 | Flood | Severe, Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| March 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Landslides, and Mudslides |
Showing the 10 most recent of 34 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Casey County?
Casey County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 37.1 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 37th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Casey County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (Medium, $78K EAL), Hail (Low, $287K EAL), Tornado (Low, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Casey County compare to other Kentucky counties?
Casey County ranks #69 of 120 Kentucky counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Casey County had?
FEMA records 34 federal disaster declarations for Casey County since 1970, most often 15 for severe storm events and 7 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in May 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Casey County's $8M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.