Butler County, Kentucky Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · KY
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 18th
Butler County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 18.1, 18th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and earthquake exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $6M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Butler County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 18.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 18th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Butler County's expected losses come from hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $862K in expected annual loss and about 3.16 events per year; earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $602K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Medium risk — $158K in expected annual loss and about 1.05 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $6M in expected annual loss for a population of 12K.
Beyond physical exposure, Butler County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Butler County has received 29 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including 15 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 120 Kentucky counties, Butler County ranks #103 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hail | Medium | 3.16 / yr | $862K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $602K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 1.05 / yr | $158K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 5.73 / yr | $469K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.34 / yr | $959K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.80 / yr | $787 |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 6.16 / yr | $186K |
| Drought | Low | 2.02 / yr | $26K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 7.00 / yr | $21K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 3.57 / yr | $2M |
| Lightning | Very Low | 54.31 / yr | $70K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.89 / yr | $228K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $5K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $2K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Butler County has received 29 federal disaster declarations since 1969, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (15), Flood (4), Snowstorm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| May 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| February 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides |
| July 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2020 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
Showing the 10 most recent of 29 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Butler County?
Butler County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 18.1 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 18th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Butler County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (Medium, $862K EAL), Earthquake (Low, $602K EAL), Ice Storm (Medium, $158K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Butler County compare to other Kentucky counties?
Butler County ranks #103 of 120 Kentucky counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Butler County had?
FEMA records 29 federal disaster declarations for Butler County since 1969, most often 15 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Butler County's $6M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.