Breckinridge County, Kentucky Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · KY
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 40th
Breckinridge County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 39.5, 40th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and ice storm exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $12M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Breckinridge County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 39.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 40th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Breckinridge County's expected losses come from hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $788K in expected annual loss and about 3.45 events per year; ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Medium risk — $323K in expected annual loss and about 1.07 events per year; and earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $671K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $12M in expected annual loss for a population of 20K.
Beyond physical exposure, Breckinridge County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Breckinridge County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1974, including 15 for severe storm events and 5 for tornado events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 120 Kentucky counties, Breckinridge County ranks #62 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hail | Medium | 3.45 / yr | $788K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 1.07 / yr | $323K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $671K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 6.16 / yr | $836K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.44 / yr | $2M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.93 / yr | $1K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.25 / yr | $6M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 5.89 / yr | $313K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 8.05 / yr | $52K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.21 / yr | $583K |
| Drought | Low | 1.98 / yr | $52K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $14K |
| Lightning | Low | 52.87 / yr | $96K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $3K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Breckinridge County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1974, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (15), Tornado (5), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| February 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides |
| July 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| December 2021 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
| December 2021 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
Showing the 10 most recent of 28 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Breckinridge County?
Breckinridge County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 39.5 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 40th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Breckinridge County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (Medium, $788K EAL), Ice Storm (Medium, $323K EAL), Earthquake (Low, $671K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Breckinridge County compare to other Kentucky counties?
Breckinridge County ranks #62 of 120 Kentucky counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Breckinridge County had?
FEMA records 28 federal disaster declarations for Breckinridge County since 1974, most often 15 for severe storm events and 5 for tornado events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Breckinridge County's $12M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.