Ballard County, Kentucky Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · KY
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 40th
Ballard County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 39.6, 40th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and earthquake exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $11M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Ballard County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 39.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 40th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Ballard County's expected losses come from drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 7.11 events per year; earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; and ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $456K in expected annual loss and about 1.14 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $11M in expected annual loss for a population of 8K.
Beyond physical exposure, Ballard County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Ballard County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 14 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 120 Kentucky counties, Ballard County ranks #61 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | High | 7.11 / yr | $3M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.01 / yr | $4M |
| Ice Storm | High | 1.14 / yr | $456K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 3.91 / yr | $585K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 10.95 / yr | $342K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.95 / yr | $610K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.34 / yr | $593 |
| Winter Weather | Low | 6.74 / yr | $40K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.24 / yr | $503K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $12K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 55.87 / yr | $65K |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.04 / yr | $64K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 3.11 / yr | $1M |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $2K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Ballard County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (14), Flood (4), Snowstorm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| February 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides |
| July 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2021 | Flood | Severe, Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| April 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
Showing the 10 most recent of 28 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Ballard County?
Ballard County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 39.6 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 40th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Ballard County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (High, $3M EAL), Earthquake (Low, $4M EAL), Ice Storm (High, $456K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Ballard County compare to other Kentucky counties?
Ballard County ranks #61 of 120 Kentucky counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Ballard County had?
FEMA records 28 federal disaster declarations for Ballard County since 1973, most often 14 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Ballard County's $11M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.