Adair County, Kentucky Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · KY
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 39th
Adair County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 39.4, 39th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $9M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Adair County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 39.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 39th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Low risk — $415K in expected annual loss and about 2.99 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Medium risk — $93K in expected annual loss and about 7.68 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.23 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $9M in expected annual loss for a population of 19K.
Beyond physical exposure, Adair County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Adair County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1971, including 16 for severe storm events and 4 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in May 2026.
Among 120 Kentucky counties, Adair County ranks #63 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hail | Low | 2.99 / yr | $415K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 7.68 / yr | $93K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.23 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $452K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.84 / yr | $1M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 5.95 / yr | $597K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.59 / yr | $90K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.77 / yr | $929 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.03 / yr | $46K |
| Lightning | Low | 54.73 / yr | $154K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.68 / yr | $4M |
| Drought | Low | 4.83 / yr | $41K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 2.95 / yr | $128K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $4K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Adair County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1971, most recently Severe Winter Storm in May 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (16), Snowstorm (4), Winter Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| May 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| February 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides |
| July 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
Showing the 10 most recent of 27 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Adair County?
Adair County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 39.4 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 39th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Adair County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (Low, $415K EAL), Winter Weather (Medium, $93K EAL), Tornado (Medium, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Adair County compare to other Kentucky counties?
Adair County ranks #63 of 120 Kentucky counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Adair County had?
FEMA records 27 federal disaster declarations for Adair County since 1971, most often 16 for severe storm events and 4 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in May 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Adair County's $9M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.