Marshall County, Indiana Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · IN
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 42th
Marshall County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 41.6, 42th national percentile), driven primarily by lightning and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $15M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Marshall County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 41.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 42nd national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Medium risk — $700K in expected annual loss and about 42.00 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 3.89 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.25 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $15M in expected annual loss for a population of 46K.
Beyond physical exposure, Marshall County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Marshall County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 4 for flood events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 92 Indiana counties, Marshall County ranks #48 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Lightning | Medium | 42.00 / yr | $700K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 3.89 / yr | $3M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.25 / yr | $3M |
| Hail | Low | 3.18 / yr | $538K |
| Drought | Low | 1.30 / yr | $215K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $376K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 5.01 / yr | $573K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.32 / yr | $6M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 4.63 / yr | $318K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 13.74 / yr | $54K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.08 / yr | $652 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $19K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 1.27 / yr | $32K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $2K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Marshall County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Flood (4), Severe Storm (3), Snowstorm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| July 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| May 2018 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| April 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| January 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| March 2007 | Snowstorm | Snow |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| January 2005 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 16 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Marshall County?
Marshall County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 41.6 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 42th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Marshall County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Lightning (Medium, $700K EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $3M EAL), Tornado (Medium, $3M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Marshall County compare to other Indiana counties?
Marshall County ranks #48 of 92 Indiana counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Marshall County had?
FEMA records 16 federal disaster declarations for Marshall County since 1965, most often 4 for flood events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Marshall County's $15M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.