Marion County, Indiana Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · IN
HighComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 97th
Marion County faces high composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 97.5, 97th national percentile), driven primarily by tornado and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $285M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Marion County at high composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 97.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 97th national percentile and in the upper tier of natural-disaster risk nationally. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Marion County's expected losses come from tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Very High risk — $39M in expected annual loss and about 0.31 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $27M in expected annual loss and about 3.11 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at High risk — $20M in expected annual loss and about 4.37 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $285M in expected annual loss for a population of 977K.
Beyond physical exposure, Marion County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Marion County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1991, including 9 for severe storm events and 3 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 92 Indiana counties, Marion County ranks #1 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Tornado | Very High | 0.31 / yr | $39M |
| Cold Wave | High | 3.11 / yr | $27M |
| Heat Wave | High | 4.37 / yr | $20M |
| Strong Wind | Very High | 4.60 / yr | $7M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 2.93 / yr | $163M |
| Lightning | Very High | 48.18 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $22M |
| Winter Weather | High | 10.05 / yr | $570K |
| Hail | Medium | 4.24 / yr | $2M |
| Ice Storm | High | 0.78 / yr | $610K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.12 / yr | $4K |
| Drought | Low | 2.10 / yr | $50K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $19K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $9K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Marion County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1991, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (9), Snowstorm (3), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| April 2014 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| June 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
| March 2007 | Snowstorm | Snow |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| January 2005 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms and Flooding |
| January 2005 | Snowstorm | Snow |
| June 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 18 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Marion County?
Marion County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 97.5 out of 100, placing it in the High category and the 97th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Marion County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Tornado (Very High, $39M EAL), Cold Wave (High, $27M EAL), Heat Wave (High, $20M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Marion County compare to other Indiana counties?
Marion County ranks #1 of 92 Indiana counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a high rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Marion County had?
FEMA records 18 federal disaster declarations for Marion County since 1991, most often 9 for severe storm events and 3 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Marion County's $285M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.