Ogle County, Illinois Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · IL
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 71th
Ogle County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 71.1, 71th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $36M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Ogle County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 71.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 71st national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 4.13 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 5.68 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 0.68 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $36M in expected annual loss for a population of 52K.
Beyond physical exposure, Ogle County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Ogle County has received 14 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 5 for snowstorm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 102 Illinois counties, Ogle County ranks #34 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hail | Medium | 4.13 / yr | $2M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 5.68 / yr | $5M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.68 / yr | $5M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.18 / yr | $21M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 6.22 / yr | $1M |
| Drought | Medium | 11.22 / yr | $879K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $686K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.70 / yr | $163K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.14 / yr | $2K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 3.58 / yr | $304K |
| Lightning | Low | 41.29 / yr | $195K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 14.84 / yr | $20K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $4K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $5K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Ogle County has received 14 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Snowstorm (5), Flood (4), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| May 2013 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| March 2011 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| August 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| March 2008 | Snowstorm | Record Snow and Near Record Snow |
| December 2006 | Snowstorm | Snow |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| January 2001 | Snowstorm | Illinois Winter Snow Storms |
| July 1996 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 14 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Ogle County?
Ogle County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 71.1 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 71th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Ogle County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (Medium, $2M EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $5M EAL), Tornado (Medium, $5M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Ogle County compare to other Illinois counties?
Ogle County ranks #34 of 102 Illinois counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Ogle County had?
FEMA records 14 federal disaster declarations for Ogle County since 1973, most often 5 for snowstorm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Ogle County's $36M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.