Coles County, Illinois Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · IL
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 70th
Coles County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 70.4, 70th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and earthquake exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $31M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Coles County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 70.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 70th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 1.66 events per year; earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Medium risk — $210K in expected annual loss and about 8.37 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $31M in expected annual loss for a population of 47K.
Beyond physical exposure, Coles County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Coles County has received 9 federal disaster declarations since 1974, including 2 for severe storm events and 2 for tornado events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding (severe storm), declared in August 2023.
Among 102 Illinois counties, Coles County ranks #35 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | Medium | 1.66 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $4M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 8.37 / yr | $210K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 2.37 / yr | $3M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.68 / yr | $17M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.43 / yr | $3M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 7.21 / yr | $1M |
| Hail | Low | 2.71 / yr | $587K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.15 / yr | $5K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 4.39 / yr | $695K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.83 / yr | $70K |
| Lightning | Low | 47.72 / yr | $203K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.03 / yr | $30K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $3K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Coles County has received 9 federal disaster declarations since 1974, most recently Severe Storms and Flooding in August 2023. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (2), Tornado (2), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| August 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| December 2021 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2011 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| June 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| May 2002 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Tornadoes and Flooding |
| June 1974 | Flood | Severe Storms & Flooding |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Coles County?
Coles County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 70.4 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 70th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Coles County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (Medium, $2M EAL), Earthquake (Low, $4M EAL), Winter Weather (Medium, $210K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Coles County compare to other Illinois counties?
Coles County ranks #35 of 102 Illinois counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Coles County had?
FEMA records 9 federal disaster declarations for Coles County since 1974, most often 2 for severe storm events and 2 for tornado events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding, declared in August 2023.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Coles County's $31M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.