Cook County, Illinois Natural Disaster Risk

FEMA National Risk Index assessment · IL

Very High

Composite Risk Score

100.0

National percentile: 100th

Cook County faces very high composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 100.0, 100th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and tornado exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $2.42B.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025

Risk Overview

Cook County carries a very high composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 100.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 100th national percentile and among the most at-risk counties in the United States. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.

The county's risk is driven primarily by cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Very High risk — $700M in expected annual loss and about 4.25 events per year; tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Very High risk — $345M in expected annual loss and about 1.04 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Very High risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 14.60 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $2.42B in expected annual loss for a population of 5.27M.

Beyond physical exposure, Cook County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Higher vulnerability is partly offset by strong community resilience and recovery capacity.

The federal record bears this out: Cook County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1967, including 8 for flood events and 8 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Floodng (flood), declared in September 2024.

Among 102 Illinois counties, Cook County ranks #1 for overall natural disaster risk.

Expected Annual Loss $2.42B Annualized county-level EAL
Social Vulnerability High Population sensitivity
Community Resilience High Capacity to recover
Population 5.27M Latest estimate

Top Hazards

Very High $700M/yr
Very High $345M/yr
Very High $4M/yr

All 18 Hazard Risks

Cold Wave Very High 4.25 / yr$700M
Tornado Very High 1.04 / yr$345M
Winter Weather Very High 14.60 / yr$4M
Riverine Flood Very High 5.89 / yr$1.10B
Heat Wave Very High 2.90 / yr$193M
Strong Wind Very High 5.70 / yr$12M
Hail High 3.95 / yr$11M
Earthquake High 0.00 / yr$57M
Lightning Very High 41.54 / yr$3M
Ice Storm Very High 0.58 / yr$2M
Landslide Very Low 0.14 / yr$2K
Wildfire Very Low 0.00 / yr$56K
Hurricane Very Low 0.01 / yr$57K
Coastal Flood Low 0.01 / yr$37K
Drought Very Low 3.86 / yr$12K
Avalanche Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Tsunami Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Volcanic Activity Very Low 0.00 / yr$0

Disaster History

Cook County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1967, most recently Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Floodng in September 2024. Most frequent causes: Flood (8), Severe Storm (8), Snowstorm (4).

DeclaredTypeDisaster
September 2024FloodSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Floodng
November 2023FloodSevere Storms and Flooding
August 2023Severe StormSevere Storms and Flooding
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19 Pandemic
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19
May 2013FloodSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding
March 2011SnowstormSevere Winter Storm and Snowstorm
August 2010Severe StormSevere Storms and Flooding
October 2008Severe StormSevere Storms and Flooding
September 2007Severe StormSevere Storms and Flooding

Showing the 10 most recent of 24 declarations.

Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall natural disaster risk for Cook County?

Cook County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 100.0 out of 100, placing it in the Very High category and the 100th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.

What are the top natural hazards in Cook County?

The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (Very High, $700M EAL), Tornado (Very High, $345M EAL), Winter Weather (Very High, $4M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.

How does Cook County compare to other Illinois counties?

Cook County ranks #1 of 102 Illinois counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very high rating.

How many federally declared disasters has Cook County had?

FEMA records 24 federal disaster declarations for Cook County since 1967, most often 8 for flood events and 8 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Floodng, declared in September 2024.

What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?

EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Cook County's $2.42B EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.