Morgan County, Illinois Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · IL
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 71th
Morgan County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 71.1, 71th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and drought exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $28M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Morgan County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 71.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 71st national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Morgan County's expected losses come from cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $10M in expected annual loss and about 3.26 events per year; drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 3.64 events per year; and strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 5.28 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $28M in expected annual loss for a population of 33K.
Beyond physical exposure, Morgan County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Morgan County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 6 for flood events and 4 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding (severe storm), declared in August 2023.
Among 102 Illinois counties, Morgan County ranks #33 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | High | 3.26 / yr | $10M |
| Drought | High | 3.64 / yr | $2M |
| Strong Wind | High | 5.28 / yr | $2M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 8.37 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $2M |
| Hail | Low | 3.90 / yr | $506K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.22 / yr | $3K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.39 / yr | $9M |
| Ice Storm | Low | 1.47 / yr | $125K |
| Lightning | Low | 46.73 / yr | $240K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.53 / yr | $1M |
| Winter Weather | Low | 8.95 / yr | $54K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $7K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $653 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Morgan County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Storms and Flooding in August 2023. Most frequent causes: Flood (6), Severe Storm (4), Tornado (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| August 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| December 2021 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| May 2013 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| March 2011 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| March 2006 | Severe Storm | Tornadoes and Severe Storms |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| May 2002 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Tornadoes and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 17 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Morgan County?
Morgan County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 71.1 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 71th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Morgan County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (High, $10M EAL), Drought (High, $2M EAL), Strong Wind (High, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Morgan County compare to other Illinois counties?
Morgan County ranks #33 of 102 Illinois counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Morgan County had?
FEMA records 17 federal disaster declarations for Morgan County since 1973, most often 6 for flood events and 4 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding, declared in August 2023.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Morgan County's $28M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.