Madison County, Illinois Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · IL
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 93th
Madison County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 93.4, 93th national percentile), driven primarily by heat wave and tornado exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $155M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Madison County at medium composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 93.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 93rd national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Madison County's expected losses come from heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at High risk — $17M in expected annual loss and about 14.74 events per year; tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at High risk — $23M in expected annual loss and about 0.68 events per year; and hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at High risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 5.03 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $155M in expected annual loss for a population of 266K.
Beyond physical exposure, Madison County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Madison County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including 5 for flood events and 5 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes (tornado), declared in December 2021.
Among 102 Illinois counties, Madison County ranks #7 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Heat Wave | High | 14.74 / yr | $17M |
| Tornado | High | 0.68 / yr | $23M |
| Hail | High | 5.03 / yr | $5M |
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $35M |
| Cold Wave | High | 1.79 / yr | $15M |
| Lightning | High | 49.90 / yr | $2M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.39 / yr | $56M |
| Winter Weather | High | 8.89 / yr | $481K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.57 / yr | $36K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 1.18 / yr | $327K |
| Drought | Low | 1.66 / yr | $383K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 6.23 / yr | $836K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $20K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $6K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Madison County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1969, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes in December 2021. Most frequent causes: Flood (5), Severe Storm (5), Tornado (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| December 2021 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| June 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| February 2007 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| May 2002 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Tornadoes and Flooding |
| May 1996 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| May 1995 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 16 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Madison County?
Madison County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 93.4 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 93th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Madison County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Heat Wave (High, $17M EAL), Tornado (High, $23M EAL), Hail (High, $5M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Madison County compare to other Illinois counties?
Madison County ranks #7 of 102 Illinois counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Madison County had?
FEMA records 16 federal disaster declarations for Madison County since 1969, most often 5 for flood events and 5 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes, declared in December 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Madison County's $155M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.