Winnebago County
Illinois — Natural Disaster Risk Assessment
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 92th
Winnebago County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 92.4, 92th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and strong wind exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $122M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | High | 5.74 / yr | $20M |
| Strong Wind | High | 6.05 / yr | $4M |
| Tornado | High | 0.44 / yr | $19M |
| Hail | High | 4.52 / yr | $4M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 2.07 / yr | $68M |
| Lightning | High | 40.01 / yr | $1M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 3.26 / yr | $2M |
| Ice Storm | High | 0.72 / yr | $615K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 14.74 / yr | $275K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $2M |
| Drought | Low | 9.94 / yr | $246K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.09 / yr | $1K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $17K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $6K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Winnebago County?
Winnebago County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 92.4 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 92th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Winnebago County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (High, $20M EAL), Strong Wind (High, $4M EAL), Tornado (High, $19M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Winnebago County compare to other Illinois counties?
Winnebago County ranks #8 of 102 Illinois counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Winnebago County's $122M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.