Sangamon County, Illinois Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · IL
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 92th
Sangamon County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 91.7, 92th national percentile), driven primarily by tornado and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $115M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Sangamon County at medium composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 91.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 92nd national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Sangamon County's expected losses come from tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at High risk — $20M in expected annual loss and about 0.93 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $16M in expected annual loss and about 3.42 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $8M in expected annual loss and about 8.26 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $115M in expected annual loss for a population of 196K.
Beyond physical exposure, Sangamon County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Sangamon County has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 1974, including 4 for severe storm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding (severe storm), declared in August 2023.
Among 102 Illinois counties, Sangamon County ranks #9 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Tornado | High | 0.93 / yr | $20M |
| Cold Wave | High | 3.42 / yr | $16M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 8.26 / yr | $8M |
| Drought | High | 3.12 / yr | $3M |
| Hail | High | 3.68 / yr | $4M |
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $14M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.18 / yr | $47M |
| Winter Weather | High | 8.95 / yr | $453K |
| Lightning | High | 47.67 / yr | $1M |
| Strong Wind | High | 5.28 / yr | $2M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 1.49 / yr | $458K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.22 / yr | $4K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $35K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $7K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Sangamon County has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 1974, most recently Severe Storms and Flooding in August 2023. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (4), Biological (2), Snowstorm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| August 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2011 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| February 2007 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2006 | Severe Storm | Tornadoes and Severe Storms |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| May 2002 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Tornadoes and Flooding |
| January 1999 | Snowstorm | Il-Winter Storm 1/1/99 |
| May 1996 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 12 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Sangamon County?
Sangamon County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 91.7 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 92th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Sangamon County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Tornado (High, $20M EAL), Cold Wave (High, $16M EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $8M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Sangamon County compare to other Illinois counties?
Sangamon County ranks #9 of 102 Illinois counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Sangamon County had?
FEMA records 12 federal disaster declarations for Sangamon County since 1974, most often 4 for severe storm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding, declared in August 2023.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Sangamon County's $115M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.