Osceola County, Florida Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · FL
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 92th
Osceola County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 92.0, 92th national percentile), driven primarily by strong wind and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $118M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Osceola County at medium composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 92.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 92nd national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Very High risk — $27M in expected annual loss and about 0.94 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Very High risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 88.18 events per year; and wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Medium risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $118M in expected annual loss for a population of 388K.
Beyond physical exposure, Osceola County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Osceola County has received 39 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 21 for hurricane events and 5 for fire events. The most recent was Hurricane Milton (hurricane), declared in October 2024.
Among 67 Florida counties, Osceola County ranks #26 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Strong Wind | Very High | 0.94 / yr | $27M |
| Lightning | Very High | 88.18 / yr | $4M |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $4M |
| Hurricane | High | 0.27 / yr | $18M |
| Tornado | High | 1.07 / yr | $11M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 0.61 / yr | $52M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 1.95 / yr | $1M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.14 / yr | $1K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $243K |
| Drought | Low | 21.42 / yr | $95K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 3.64 / yr | $538K |
| Hail | Very Low | 1.97 / yr | $83K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Osceola County has received 39 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Hurricane Milton in October 2024. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (21), Fire (5), Tropical Storm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| October 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Milton |
| October 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Milton |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Debby |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Debby |
| August 2023 | Hurricane | Hurricane Idalia |
| August 2023 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Idalia |
| December 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Nicole |
| November 2022 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Nicole |
| September 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ian |
| September 2022 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Ian |
Showing the 10 most recent of 39 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Osceola County?
Osceola County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 92.0 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 92th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Osceola County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Strong Wind (Very High, $27M EAL), Lightning (Very High, $4M EAL), Wildfire (Medium, $4M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Osceola County compare to other Florida counties?
Osceola County ranks #26 of 67 Florida counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Osceola County had?
FEMA records 39 federal disaster declarations for Osceola County since 1977, most often 21 for hurricane events and 5 for fire events. The most recent was Hurricane Milton, declared in October 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Osceola County's $118M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.