Leon County, Florida Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · FL
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 93th
Leon County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 93.4, 93th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and hurricane exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $143M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Leon County at medium composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 93.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 93rd national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Leon County's expected losses come from cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $24M in expected annual loss and about 1.42 events per year; hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at High risk — $43M in expected annual loss and about 0.26 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at High risk — $19M in expected annual loss and about 0.37 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $143M in expected annual loss for a population of 292K.
Beyond physical exposure, Leon County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Leon County has received 36 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 19 for hurricane events and 6 for severe storm events. The most recent was Hurricane Helene (hurricane), declared in September 2024.
Among 67 Florida counties, Leon County ranks #24 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | High | 1.42 / yr | $24M |
| Hurricane | High | 0.26 / yr | $43M |
| Tornado | High | 0.37 / yr | $19M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 6.58 / yr | $4M |
| Strong Wind | High | 1.27 / yr | $2M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.68 / yr | $47M |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Lightning | Medium | 80.74 / yr | $618K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $718K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.11 / yr | $3K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 0.21 / yr | $75K |
| Hail | Low | 0.88 / yr | $225K |
| Drought | Very Low | 19.23 / yr | $22K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $1K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Leon County has received 36 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Hurricane Helene in September 2024. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (19), Severe Storm (6), Tropical Storm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| September 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Helene |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Helene |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Debby |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Debby |
| June 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| August 2023 | Hurricane | Hurricane Idalia |
| August 2023 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Idalia |
| December 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Nicole |
| September 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ian |
| September 2022 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Ian |
Showing the 10 most recent of 36 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Leon County?
Leon County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 93.4 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 93th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Leon County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (High, $24M EAL), Hurricane (High, $43M EAL), Tornado (High, $19M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Leon County compare to other Florida counties?
Leon County ranks #24 of 67 Florida counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Leon County had?
FEMA records 36 federal disaster declarations for Leon County since 1973, most often 19 for hurricane events and 6 for severe storm events. The most recent was Hurricane Helene, declared in September 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Leon County's $143M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.