Bay County
Florida — Natural Disaster Risk Assessment
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 94th
Bay County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 94.1, 94th national percentile), driven primarily by hurricane and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $158M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hurricane | Very High | 0.26 / yr | $118M |
| Lightning | Very High | 87.36 / yr | $3M |
| Tornado | High | 0.77 / yr | $11M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 6.70 / yr | $2M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 1.57 / yr | $4M |
| Coastal Flood | Medium | 3.76 / yr | $2M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $294K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.00 / yr | $17M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 1.00 / yr | $937K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $378K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.09 / yr | $423 |
| Winter Weather | Low | 0.16 / yr | $35K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.61 / yr | $76K |
| Drought | Very Low | 17.37 / yr | $2K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Bay County?
Bay County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 94.1 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 94th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Bay County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hurricane (Very High, $118M EAL), Lightning (Very High, $3M EAL), Tornado (High, $11M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Bay County compare to other Florida counties?
Bay County ranks #22 of 67 Florida counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Bay County's $158M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.